Sensei’s Poker Dojo

In which Sensei discusses how to be better at poker and life

Archive for September, 2008


Election/Polling coverage, from the poker perspective

I’ve been following the latest news on the election for a while now, as best I can. This is the first election I can recall where I’ve actually been interested, which is rather exciting. As a 24 year old who lives in San Francisco, my personal opinion on the candidates probably should come as no surprise, but I don’t think that I have anything to say that hundreds of other amateur pundits on the internet already have, so I won’t bother piling any more mud on the McCain/Palin ticket or lobbing praises to Obama and Biden.

But I would like to spread the word about a website I’ve been spending a lot of time at lately. FiveThirtyEight is, to the best of my knowledge, the most statistically diligent site devoted to coverage of the campaign. Operated by Nate Silver, who is an avid poker player, economist, and one of the founders of Baseball Prospectus (perhaps the most well-respected baseball statistics analysis site?), FiveThirtyEight offers a gloriously mathematical outlook on the current proceedings and a comprehensive look at the current state of public opinion. They combine dozens of well-established existing polls and weight the results based on the past accuracy of the polling company as well as a number of other principles perhaps best left to statisticians (these are explained more fully in the FAQ if you’re curious). Other interesting features include a ‘return on investment index’ which presumably estimates the relative value of campaign spending in various states.

From the perspective of a mathematically-minded and business-oriented poker professional, 538 blows all other sites out of the water (though it did have me worrying more than I needed to when McCain was running hot a few weeks ago). Check it out if you’re into that sort of thing.

Also, on a similar note, I’ve been thinking about booking some wagers on the election. Perhaps an underdog bet on McCain at 3-1 or so, as a sort of emotional hedge (If Obama wins, I won’t care about losing some gold; If McCain wins, at least I win a few grand!) More likely though, given the action that I could reasonably get, would be a valuebet on Obama, laying 2:3 or something like that. If 538 is to be trusted, I think thats a very +EV bet right now.

Oh right, heads up no limit still exists

Its been a while since I played any heads up, on account of the whole PLO thing. But tonight I decided to play some for old times sake (and so I could win mad loot too of course). I ended up crushing one dude’s soul (1819 hands of 5/10 HUNL, +$9071). He wouldn’t quit me even though I was consistently smoking him. We played two tables for several hours and I mainly just chipped away at him, periodically winning a full stack. He wasn’t awful, but had some very clear leaks, some transparent lines in big pots, and was not adjusting well at all to my shifty maneuvers.

The biggest hand:

PokerStars Game #20651494991:  Hold’em No Limit ($5/$10) – 2008/09/24 4:05:10 ET
Table ‘Dabih’ 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: DJ Sensei ($2159.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Shazmeister ($2745.50 in chips)
DJ Sensei: posts small blind $5
Shazmeister: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DJ Sensei [Js Jd]
DJ Sensei: raises $20 to $30
Shazmeister: raises $90 to $120
DJ Sensei: calls $90
*** FLOP *** [8c 4d Tc]
Shazmeister: bets $160
DJ Sensei: calls $160
*** TURN *** [8c 4d Tc] [3h]
Shazmeister: bets $350
DJ Sensei: calls $350
*** RIVER *** [8c 4d Tc 3h] [Jc]
Shazmeister: bets $2115.50 and is all-in
DJ Sensei: calls $1529.50 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($586) returned to Shazmeister
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Shazmeister: shows [7d 6d] (high card Jack)
DJ Sensei: shows [Js Jd] (three of a kind, Jacks)
DJ Sensei collected $4318.50 from pot

The most fun hand:

PokerStars Game #20650740846:  Hold’em No Limit ($5/$10) – 2008/09/24 2:44:02 ET
Table ‘Dabih’ 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: DJ Sensei ($1370 in chips)
Seat 2: Shazmeister ($2572.50 in chips)
DJ Sensei: posts small blind $5
Shazmeister: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DJ Sensei [4s 2s]
DJ Sensei: raises $10 to $20
Shazmeister: raises $80 to $100
DJ Sensei: calls $80
*** FLOP *** [5d Qh 6d]
Shazmeister: checks
DJ Sensei: bets $120
Shazmeister: calls $120
*** TURN *** [5d Qh 6d] [3s]
Shazmeister: checks
DJ Sensei: bets $300
Shazmeister: raises $2052.50 to $2352.50 and is all-in
DJ Sensei: calls $850 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($1202.50) returned to Shazmeister
*** RIVER *** [5d Qh 6d 3s] [8h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Shazmeister: shows [5h 4h] (a pair of Fives)
DJ Sensei: shows [4s 2s] (a straight, Deuce to Six)
DJ Sensei collected $2739.50 from pot

Ship the gold.

The tale of my first casino experience

It was the spring of my Junior year at Duke, and for lack of a better plan some friends and I decided to go to Myrtle Beach, SC for spring break. I hadn’t ever been, but we had been regaled for several years with tales of wild beach parties and such things, and that sounded like something we’d like to be a part of. We also had all been getting more seriously into poker around that time, so the presence of a casino boat nearby sweetened the deal for us. When we learned that our hotel had a lazy river pool, that sealed it.

Now as it turns out, Myrtle Beach is only a hot beach destination during the warm summer months. During March it is cold and, at least during the week we were there, rainy. The hotels and the beach were mostly empty, and it seems that many of the businesses around were open only to serve the suckers who showed up for spring break anyhow. I don’t know if we even saw any girls our own age the whole time we were there. But these setbacks didn’t stop us from having a good time. There was plenty of college basketball to watch thanks to March Madness, plenty of beer to drink, and of course the lazy river. I forget whether it was our second or third day there that we went to the casino boat, but it proved to be quite an experience.

First, I should explain a few things about this floating casino. Gambling isn’t legal in South Carolina, so the boat had to sail out to international waters before the action could begin. This took about 45 minutes and was quite boring. Once the boat had finally reached its destination (the middle of nowhere in the ocean) the tables were unlocked and the chips began to fly. The boat floated around for about 3 hours, and then all action ceased for the long slow ride back to shore. I suppose the psychological effects of this fixed endpoint in a gambling schedule are probably pretty interesting, as I don’t know of any other casinos which have such conditions in place, but that is a discussion for another time. The important thing now is that we were 4 young dudes ready to take this boat for everything it was worth. Well, probably not, but maybe a few hundred bucks!

In preparation for our trip we had done some research on what games were available on board, and practiced some of the silly ones like Let It Ride (kinda fun) and Caribbean Stud (sucks). We knew that the ship offered poker, but weren’t sure in what capacity it was spread. When we got on board we learned that the only game available was 5/10 limit holdem. Damn. Not only was it limit, the most boring form of poker, but it was 5/10, which at the time was a pretty big game for us. I, being a poor college student, only had a few hundred bucks to play with, and I’d have been pretty displeased if I lost that, so I wasn’t too thrilled with this development. But we were there to play, so after the boat was far enough out to sea, my friend Jake and I sat into the game. Our other friends were content with brackjack, at least at first. In retrospect, that was a rather notable occasion: the first time I ever played poker live in a casino. At the time of course I had no idea of my future in poker, I was a curious mixture of scared money and online-trained confidence. Sadly I don’t remember any particular hands, though there was at least one where Jake and I got into a pot against each other and he came out with the best of it. All I remember is that we quit the game after an hour or so (stuck a little) and went to find our friends for some more sociable gambling experiences. We played some Let it Ride and some Caribbean Stud and some Brackjack, and I recall being down a bit when the boat began its return voyage, but not too much. I don’t think anybody won or lost too much that first trip, really, although it isn’t like we had all that much in play.

We returned to the hotel for some much-needed napping, as the trip had departed fairly early in the morning and returned in the early afternoon. Mike and Dave decided that they had experienced enough gambling for the trip and spent the rest of the day relaxing and watching basketball and movies, but Jake and I had caught the itch, and so we returned to the boat later that afternoon for the second excursion of the day, dollar signs twinkling in our eyes. On the departure towards international waters we struck up conversation with the croupiers, since neither of us knew a thing about craps but were curious about the game. They taught us how the betting worked, and the standard plays which most folks made, and by the time we were once again far enough out in the lonely Atlantic we decided to spend some more time there. But first, we had to take care of some business at the other tables. I forget exactly which ones we began that trip with, but I think it may have been blackjack or Let it Ride. Perhaps we won, perhaps we lost. I don’t really remember. But it didn’t matter. Once we stepped up to the craps table, all of our previous wagers on the boat were left behind.

We began wagering the minimum, which was probably $5 or $10. Not too much happened at first, but then when the dice were finally pushed in my direction I must have picked the right ones. I could do no wrong. I nailed point after point, and the only times I rolled that dirty seven, it was perfectly timed after hitting a point. Jake and I began to rake in more and more chips, and increased our wagers accordingly. The rest of the table was filled with old people (well, I guess the whole boat was filled with them) who were betting larger amounts than us, and making a lot of money on my hot hands. I don’t know exactly how long I was rolling for, and I’m sure I’m exaggerating it somewhat (Craps stories are like fishing stories in that regard, it seems) but I think it was on the order of 25 or 30 minutes. Perhaps not a legendary roll in the grand scheme of things, but when the dust settled I was up close to $500 on the session, and Jake had made a good chunk of change off of me too. Not to mention the old people who did even better; if they were younger I’d probably have gotten a ton of high fives. We didn’t even blow those winnings at another game afterwards! When we finally got back to the hotel that evening we proudly flung our newly collected hundred dollar bills around for a bit, while regaling Mike and Dave with stories of our greatness. Obviously we slowrolled them a bit first and pretended to have lost our shirts, but we couldn’t hold back the smiles for very long.

That was the last time we spent on the casino boat, which was probably a good thing. We went fishing the next day, and though I don’t have any stories about the big fish that got away, we did have a great time. (Except Dave, because he was ridiculously seasick.) The remainder of our Myrtle Beach spring break was relatively uneventful, involving lots of beers in the hotel room and lazy-river floating (also with beers). When I returned to campus, I went to the computer store to buy myself an iPod (my first!). The cashier was surprised when I presented a few crisp hundoes as payment, and asked jokingly if I had just printed them. “Nope,” I replied, “just a hot hand in a dice game”.

Easy game

This guy is my new best friend!

FullTiltPoker $10/$20 – Pot Limit Omaha Hi
Seat 1: DJ Sensei ($3,245)
Seat 2: ($2,407)
Seat 3: ($6,716)
Seat 4: guy ($4,376)
Seat 5: ($1,413)
Seat 6: dude ($2,097)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DJ Sensei [Jd 6h Jc 6c]
guy raises to $60
dude calls $60
DJ Sensei calls $60
*** FLOP *** [2c Th Jh]
guy checks
dude bets $210
DJ Sensei raises to $840
guy folds
dude calls $630
*** TURN *** [2c Th Jh] [Js]
dude checks
DJ Sensei checks – Its a tarp!
*** RIVER *** [2c Th Jh Js] [Tc]
dude checks
DJ Sensei bets $1,200
dude calls $1,197, and is all in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DJ Sensei shows [Jd 6h Jc 6c] four of a kind, Jacks
dude mucks
DJ Sensei wins the pot ($4,281) with four of a kind, Jacks
dude is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,284 | Rake $3
Board: [2c Th Jh Js Tc]
Seat 1: DJ Sensei (button) showed [Jd 6h Jc 6c] and won ($4,281) with four of a kind, Jacks
Seat 6: dude mucked [9d 4h 7d 9h] – two pair, Jacks and Nines

Oh and I’m working on the trip report from my backpacking trip, but for some reason I can’t write for more than 10 minutes at a time without getting distracted by something shiny. Hopefully I’ll finish it up soon, but don’t stay up waiting or anything.

Some internet services that are far better than their traditional counterparts

Hulu.com is a website where you can watch TV (and movies) for free, and you can pick and choose from hundreds of them. You can even watch specific clips from classic movies, or individual comedy sketches. Thankfully, several of the major networks are on board with the plan, and new episodes of currently running TV shows are quickly added to the site. You do have to watch a few commercials here and there, but they occur in much smaller quantity than standard television, so its a sacrifice I’m happy to make. One potential downside to Hulu is complete and utter loss of productivity, at least until you’ve watched “Lazy Sunday” half a dozen times or so and are satisfied for the day. So it goes.

Another feature of Hulu that I’m happy to share is the ability to embed their videos into other websites, the obvious example being my blog. So I present to you this classic SNL commercial:

In the music department, Pandora is a site which allows you to design custom radio stations for yourself. To begin, you seed your new station with a particular artist or song and Pandora provides a few songs of similar style. By rating the songs played for you (with a simple thumbs up or thumbs down) and adding new seed information if you like, you provide the site with enough information to tailor a great station of related songs for you. If you want to skip a song, you can, though the site limits the number of times you can do this for some legal reason. Small price to pay!

Pandora takes all the benefits of traditional radio (namely that you’re exposed to a variety of music and new artists and songs, and that its free) and takes away all the things that suck (commercials, awful playlists, limited choice of stations). Unlike Hulu, Pandora may actually increase your productivity by providing a stream of music appropriate to your current working needs. To invoke the specific example of an online poker professional, I’ve been able to craft a few streams of music for my particular moods. When I’m having a tough session or need to relax a bit, I turn on a station of mellow indie rock. When I’m in high gear aggro mode, I flip to the Wu Tang-based station and stack those papers. And so on, and so on. Unfortunately, Pandora is only available to folks in the USA (as far as I know). But thats ok for most of us!

UPDATE (10/5/08): I stumbled upon this article about how to access Hulu or Pandora (or other similar sites) from outside the USA! Wooo!