Sensei’s Poker Dojo

In which Sensei discusses how to be better at poker and life

Archive for March, 2009


Bay 101 WPT report

I drove down Monday morning, arriving about 5 minutes before the scheduled start of 10:451. Day 1A was much less crowded than day 1B on Tuesday, so I had no trouble buying in directly and getting a seat. My starting table was awesome, so I was in excellent position to build a big stack. The ’shooting star’2 at our table was Marco Traniello, the husband of Jennifer Harman. It became apparent that Marco wasn’t a particularly great player, but he was also playing fairly tight most of the day so it wasn’t going to be so easy to pry his chips away from him. The rest of the table was made up with various amateurs, local and otherwise. I was undoubtedly the best player at the table by far.

We began the day with 20,000 chips and 25/50 blinds, as is customary for such tournaments. In the second hand of the day, I picked up AQ in the blinds and raised to 300 after several limpers. Marco, who had opened the limping party, was the only caller. The flop came out JT9 with a flush draw, I bet out 500 or something, and he called. The turn was a Q putting up another flush draw, I checked and he checked behind. The river bricked off and I checked again, planning to fold to a bet since I couldn’t really beat anything, and he checked behind again. Somehow my hand was good. The next big hand I played, I raised KJ from middle position after a few limpers, and got called by 3 players. The flop was KJ7 with a spade draw. I bet 775 and was raised by a player in position to 2000. Given position and stack sizes I saw no reason to reraise, so I called and looked for a safe turn card. Unfortunately it was the 7s, and I check-folded to a t3500 bet.

During the second level, I played a fairly sizeable pot against a very loose, presumably foreign player on my right. I opened AKcc under the gun to 350, and he was the only caller in the BB. The flop was T33 with a few clubs, and he check-called 550. The turn was an offsuit 7 and when he checked I decided to barrel again, making it 1350 to go. He surprisingly checkraised me to 3800 and I was faced with a tough decision. On the one hand I could be drawing dead, or at least some of my ‘outs’ (A, K) might not be good. On the other hand I had seen him make a boneheaded semibluff on the turn in a recent hand, so I figured he probably had a lot of that sort of thing in his range. He had about 8k behind at that point, and eventually I decided to call. The river was another 3 and he checked quickly. I checked behind almost immediately, which I decided was a big mistake when he showed me 74cc and won the pot. I don’t think he’s checking there with any hand that can call a shove, and my hand looks a lot more like an overpair than a draw too. But so it goes.

In level 3, I got back some of the chips I had lost earlier. The same aggressive guy opened the CO to 475 and I flatted ATcc on the button. The SB called as well and we all checked the 522 flop. On the A turn, the CO bet 1200 and I called, as did the SB. The river was a glorious T and when they checked I bet 3500 and was called by the SB, who mucked his hand.

During level 4 I lost a few medium pots in unfortunate spots like barrelling into the nuts and valuebetting thin with QJ on an AA66Q board only to be check-called by 76. I did win one nice pot though: I overlimped 64hh in position, and floated the T65r flop when one of the blinds led out 500 into it. The turn was a 4 and he check-called 1400. The river was a 3, I valuebet 2400, and he called with something that was worse. Worth noting: I was probably the only player at the table who would even consider valuebetting there when a 4-straight came in, even though it seems so obvious to me. Live tournament players suck.

At some point around then, a young new player was moved to the table and it became apparent that he knew what he was doing. Fortunately though, he was positioned to my right and the rest of the table was so soft that we didn’t really need to get involved in big pots against each other. I did play one pot to put him in line, somewhat. He opened from late position to 550, and I called the BB with A2o. We checked through the 432 flop, and I check called the Q turn and 4 river. He admitted defeat before I showed my hand.

My first big breakthrough came later in level 5: I overcalled a raise on the button with K4hh. The flop came out K64, all clubs. An old guy who normally works as a dealer at Bay 1013 led out for 800 after the raiser checked, and the loose foreign guy on my right called. I overcalled, and the turn was an offsuit 7. The old guy checked, the loose guy bet out 1200, and I called again. The old dude folded and I binked a K on the river. He led out 1500, I raised to 7500, and he called with the nut flush. My stack was up over 40k for the first time. Booya.

Level 6 wasn’t so pleasant for me, as I ran a few marginal made hands into the top of my opponent’s ranges. Once I had AT, raised pre, bet the T9x two-tone flop, and check-called the K turn and brick river against a very fishy opponent. He had KQo. Later I opened 99, trickily checked the 743 flop OOP, then check-called the Q turn and brick river, and ran into a set of 7’s. Guess I lost the minimum there, heh.

During level 7 I opened K9 in the small blind and the fishy guy called. I bet the J53 flop and he called. The turn was a 9 and we both checked, the river was another 9 and I overbet 7000 into 4000 or so and he called quickly, showing KJ. Robert Williamson III (another bounty player) was moved to my immediate right with a short stack, but sadly our table broke before I got any good shots at him.

My new table appeared to be equally soft, other than a few online players and a big-stack who also was a Bay 101 employee (and had his big stack mostly punted to him when he had AA and the previous big-stack 4-bet shipped a huge amount with AKo.) I dwindled my stack a little, folding a lot and losing one medium pot when I barreled AK into an old crazy dude on a T73Q board but give up when he tries to raise less than the minimum on the turn “to see what I have”.

During level 9 I have a shortstack and begin looking for spots to move in, eventually reshipping 33 against the bigstack, who called with AQ. Somehow he whiffed and I was back in action. I later opened AK to 1800 and get a few calls. The flop was AJ4 with a heart draw, I bet 4200, and one of the online players raised 11k more with about 11k behind. I shipped it in, of course, and he tanked and berated himself before folding what was apparently AQ. I was back above average in chips and pretty comfortable with my stack going into level 10, the last level of the day.

Sadly, my plan to coast into day 2 with a solid stack didn’t pan out. An old asian guy on my right openlimped his SB into me (at 400/800/100) and I raised 2k more with AJ (perhaps a bit small?). The flop was QQJ and we both checked. He donked out 5k on the brick turn and I called. The river was another J and he donked out 13k. I called again, obviously, and learned that he had coolered me with his monster Q5o and cut out a big chunk of my stack. I became pretty steamed up afterwards, but was well aware of it and wasn’t going to make any bonehead plays. I just hoped that I could find a hand to get stacks in with so I had a shot to double up (or bust out before the day was over)

The clock was ticking down and I kept get dealt rags, which was frustrating. The fact that the other players were taking so long to make decisions and/or handle their chips certainly didn’t help. When a few of the fish who had taken chips from me punted their stacks off to other players with completely idiotic plays, it was even worse. Fortunately I picked up AQ with about 12 minutes left in the day, and was able to reship when the chipleader opened the pot. He called me with TT and his hand held up. I’ve never been so happy to bust from a tournament before. Being out completely seemed like a much better option than having to drive all the way back down to San Jose again on Wednesday, just to sit behind a short stack and probably bust early anyhow. Doubling up and having an average stack again would of course have been awesome, so I was just happy to have that opportunity.

Better luck next year I suppose! Also, hopefully some local chumps win big money and start playing in the Lucky Chances 20/40NL game :) .

  1. Matt Savage, the tournament director, does an excellent job of running this tournament (and is a really nice guy!) but 10:45 is just too early for a big-buyin tournament to begin. Probably less than half of the professional players normally get up that early. []
  2. At the Bay 101 event, each table starts with a ’shooting star’, a notable poker player who comes with a $5000 bounty to the person who eliminates him or her. Its great for everyone because of the potential for extra money, and its great for the stars themselves because many players will go out of their way to try and bust one, thus getting it in light. []
  3. There were a lot of employees playing, all wearing their badges for some reason. What was surprising about this one is that he seemed totally awkward about managing his chips. You’d think that working full time dealing a poker game would lead to at least decent chip-handling skills. []

Implied odds in a Duke basketball context

Today I awoke early to watch the Duke-Maryland ACC semifinal game, and discovered that FSU had UNC on the ropes in the earlier semi. They ended up closing it out for the upset and any hopes we had of meeting UNC in the finals were dashed. I wasn’t sure how to feel about it. On the one hand, its nice to have an easier road to the ACC championship (in fact we won’t have to defeat anyone ranked higher than us to take it down). On the other hand, like any true Duke fan, I knew that the title would mean so much more if it involved a vengeful defeat of UNC.

And then I analyzed the value of each possibility in terms of our overall NCAA championship efforts. Unlike most programs, Duke is actually disappointed every single year we don’t win a championship. We’re a perennial contender, we’ve been there and done that a few times already, and so nothing short of ultimate victory will suffice. From a hypothetical ‘team happiness EV’ standpoint, the value of winning the NCAA tournament is several orders of magnitude larger than than of winning the ACC tournament.1 FSU will be an easier opponent to defeat for the ACC championship (my friend Matt over at the immaculate inning probably has a fairly accurate % chance of that result) but our NCAA hopes won’t be significantly stronger if we manage to defeat them. We expect to win that game and are probably already looking forward to next Thursday or Friday, when the real challenge begins.

But what if we were to face UNC in the finals? Our chances of winning the ACC tournament would greatly diminish, but the confidence payoff for victory would be much higher as well. We would be emotionally peaking as a team after a victory like that, at the best possible moment. I think our chances of winning the real championship would drastically improve! Since victory requires 6 consecutive wins against the best teams in the country2, a team must be on its A game every single effort, or it is likely doomed to failure. While its difficult to objectively calculate this emotional benefit mathematically, it subjectively seems to have more overall value than the alternative (playing FSU, that is).3 Of course the downside of losing a third time to UNC in the finals would certainly be significant, but the difference between an early-round NCAA defeat and a third or fourth-round defeat is somewhat negligible compared to the difference between a final-four appearance and, well, any other result.

So is it worth more to us to take that statistically unlikely shot at the ultimate confidence boost going into the big dance by taking on UNC in the finals? The implied odds say yes. Too bad we don’t have a choice.

  1. We have won 7 of the last 10 ACC championships, in fact, which is a pretty astounding feat if you consider the strength of the conference. []
  2. well, more like one cupcake and then 5 consecutive games against the best teams in the country []
  3. I feel rather qualified to make such a subjective assessment, too, since subconsciously calculating implied odds has been a significant part of my job for the last few years. []

Triumphant return to Lucky Chances

Recently a friend informed me that Lucky Chances has begun spreading a 20/40NL game, so I decided to head down today and check it out. I recruited Jonas (riverboatking) to come along (and in doing so, drive me there in his sweet car with the ‘HU4ROLLZ’ license plate). When I called our names into the list I learned that the 20/40 game has replaced the old 10-10-20 game. Kills are no longer allowed preflop (though live straddling is allowed).((For a discussion of the ‘kill’, consult my early artichoke joes/lucky chances trip reports)) Our no limit game is now like every other serious no limit game in the country1. Most of the players are pretty happy about it, though apparently some are grumpy because they have to pay 20 bucks more a round in blinds. They are also planning to spread a straight up 10-20NL game on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays soon too, which is good news for the live pros in the area who previously had to go play 80-160 limit in San Jose if they wanted to play big on non-MWF days.2 The minimum buyin for the game is surprisingly low at $1000, but most players regard this as a positive due to the higher influx of new players. In a game like this, ‘new players’ basically means ‘fresh blood’ since most of the regulars have been around for a while and know what they’re doing. I considered the possibility that someone would begin shortstacking the game in the obnoxious style of the online shorstacker, but I think that since ratholing is not feasible that it would be generally doomed to failure.

So anyhow, we roll down around 4:00 but have to wait a little while before seats open up. Jonas suggests that we flip a coin to determine who’ll take the first seat available, which is sort of -EV for me since my name was on the list first, but I figure that its fair and ship the flip, heads-style. Booya. We decide to take a few open seats in the 2-3-5 spread game to occupy ourselves until our seats open up, and immediately Jonas begins arranging props. I agree upon red-black since it requires minimal effort but offers a pretty good sweat3. While negotiating the terms of the wager, Jonas binks an all-black flop, but since we hadn’t agreed to any amounts yet, it was null. Eventually we agreed upon $100 for a flop all of your color, $300 for a monotone flop of one of your suits, $1000 for a 3-card straight flush, and to double any of the wagers if all 5 cards came out the same color. Several of our tablemates were delighted by the idea, though they also seemed a bit incredulous to the idea that we’d be wagering such amounts while playing a game of these stakes. I quickly realized that I was sweating the flop colors way more than I was paying attention to the poker game, which made sense given the relative stakes involved, but was still a little unnerving. I decided not to play any props in the main game so that I could maintain focus on the important things. I didn’t spend long in the spread limit game though, and I was called up to the big leagues before any flop was dealt the same color. I bet Jonas was disappointed by that.

The lineup seemed fairly tough, with only a few clear soft spots and a lot of solid regulars. My seat was also the one on Marcus’ immediate right, generally regarded as the worst seat at the table. For the first few hours I didn’t have too much action. I managed to win a lot of relatively uncontested small-medium pots, so my stack was growing gradually (but slowly). Jonas, who had moved to the 5/10NL game (another new addition to the poker room!) finally acquired a seat in our game, and naturally it was on my immediate right. His seat was even worse than mine. Only a few big hands transpired while we were seated in this arrangement. Jonas made a big (and correct) calldown of Marcus with T9o on a 98×56 board. Very shortly thereafter, I opened JJ to 200 over a few limpers and Marcus immediately repopped to 700. We were about 9k deep at this point, so I called. The flop was 864 and I check-called 1000 or something. On the 5 turn I checked and he bet $2500 or something like that and I took a long time thinking it over before eventually folding. The two main reasons were: 1) I’d have to call again and check/call pretty much any river thus risking my whole stack and 2) I thought a lot of his steam-reraising range had squarely connected with that board and of course he would be valuebetting it thusly (and shipping pretty much any river). I wasn’t excited about it, but it seemed necessary.

Eventually a few dudes racked up and left, and the customary musical chairs commenced. Jonas moved to Marcus’s left (the 8 seat) and I switched to the 3 seat, which was both across the table from Marcus and Jonas and to the left of the weakest player at the table in the 1 seat. The action heated up. I rebuilt my stack, winning a few decently sized pots with straight-up valuebetting, and began to punish the 1 seat’s limps by raising just about all of them, knowing that he played very weakly postflop. Eventually he overlimped in early middle position and I popped it up to 200 or 240 with 88. One of the blinds or limpers called and he made an apparently frustrated reraise to 800 or something. I suspected that he was weak. He seemed fed up with my nonsense, so I figured he was just as likely to be making a spur-of-the-moment play with one of his crappy limping hands as he was to have limped a monster to try and trap me. Also, he only had about 3200 behind, so I reraised 2k more on top and called it off when he quickly moved all in. The board ran out with lots of big cards, and he flipped AQ when he turned two pair. I mucked, content with the knowledge that everyone probably put me on a stronger hand than I actually had.

After opening J9 to 120 from late position, I called a reraise to 420 from one of the blinds with about 4k behind. He had recently lost a big pot to Jonas (by Jonas fake-tilting with aces and building a big pot fast) so he seemed more likely to be tilted. The flop came out T97 and he bet out 700, so I shipped over the top. He quickly called, but I binked an 8 on the turn to crack his aces. He got up and left.

The next big pot I played was a serious one. Marcus (who was now occupying the 1 seat for some reason opened to 160 and I called in position. Jonas squeezed 1000 more from the blinds. Marcus called. I verbally confirmed Jonas’ remaining stack size at around 8500. I had around 13 or 14k. Marcus covered us both. I decided to call, knowing not only that my implied odds were pretty good (since I had position on both of the most aggressive players at the table who had been doing battle all night) but also that I could make a gametime decision to bluff a number of flops that nailed my pretty transparent range. The flop came out Q98 rainbow. Jonas quickly bet 2300, and Marcus folded without too much thought. I tanked and analyzed my chances for a while before deciding to pull the trigger and shove. I attempted to seem as submissive as possible in doing so, to maximize my representation of a set. When he began to speculate that he should be putting me on JJ or TT, I was concerned, because I realized that those made pretty good sense. Perhaps a Q87 flop would have been a better choice? Well, eventually he folded. I turned my hand over rather casually because I wanted to shift the table into high gear but I didn’t want to rub it in Jonas’ face too badly. I think I achieved in those goals.

Shortly thereafter, I got involved in a multiway raised pot with Q9cc in the small blind. The flop came out T97 with two clubs and I check-called 500 from the preflop raiser in early position. The big blind shipped another 1700 or so and I found myself priced in to call it off. I asked if he had a straight before the turn was dealt and he nodded affirmatively. The turn was a Q and I casually mentioned that I had some new outs. As if I had beckoned it, the dealer burned one off and planted another Q on the river. He got up and left, too.

From that point on I played a little more loosely preflop, because I had plenty of chips, my image was awesome, and the whole table was getting into it a bit more often. I didn’t play many more big pots, though I did take another decently-sized one off Jonas when I managed to actually get queens in a squeeze spot and run into his tens and a pretty clean flop. He escaped intact on the turn though, which was a solid laydown given his apparent steam. I was somewhat concerned that he was tilting hard, but after watching him play that way for the rest of the night I think he’s very good at playing with a tilty image, as he wound up getting his opponents into huge pots when he held strong cards. If only they would hold up, that is. Our trip ended when he got his remaining 4000 or so in preflop with AKcc against Marcus’ KTss and the board ran out KQcTcKx. It was an apparently brutal beat, though I had a hard time envisioning it as anything more than just another 70/30.

I booked about a 15k win on the night, which I believe is my new biggest daily haul from around those parts. Sweet. Confidence is high headed into next week’s Bay 101 Shooting Star tournament. I’m managing to keep my hopes realistic since it is a donkament and I’ll have to get lucky to go very deep, but the structure is perfectly suited to my strengths and it is my hometown tournament (more or less) so I expect to do pretty well again. Hopefully I’ll pick up some bounties this year!

  1. though I’m sure there will be some nostalgia for the old ways. At least they still have the 2-3-5 spread limit []
  2. ewww limit gross []
  3. especially when the dealer flips the flop over with only the door card is visible, then spreads it out []

Some beers you should drink

Inspired by a brief discussion of delicious beers that recently transpired in the HSNL nonsense thread, as well as an enjoyable night of trying new ones in Colorado last week1 I decided to put together a little list of some of my favorite beers as well as some new ones I have enjoyed immensely. Most are likely to be distributed in a limited area (the West coast and Colorado are pretty awesome at concocting delicious beers) so if you can find any of them, you should buy them and drink them.

Brother Thelonius Abbey Ale – North Coast brewing company, Fort Bragg CA

I discovered it last week. The bottle caught my eye (any beer with a label like that had to be awesome), and the flavor was amazingly complex and delicious. Apparently they also give money to a Jazz foundation of some sort when you buy it, which is cool.

Ruben & the Jets – Lagunitas brewing company, Petaluma CA

The latest of the series of beers brewed by Lagunitas in honor of Frank Zappa. They’re local to the Bay Area and all of the beers in the series (which I’ve had the pleasure of sampling over the last few years) have been awesome.

90 Minute IPA – Dogfish Head, Rehoboth Beach DE

Classic delicious IPA that my beer-nerd friend Jonathan introduced me to in college. They also make a 60-minute IPA which is a little easier to drink and a 120-minute IPA which is a serious undertaking. I find the 90 Minute to be just the right balance of boldly flavorful and reasonably drinkable2.

Black Butte Porter – Deschutes Brewery, Bend OR

The go-to pint at my neighborhood bar.3

Gonzo Porter – Flying Dog Brewery, Denver CO

Another amazing beer that Jonathan introduced me to back in the day. My preference for dark and strong beers (as well as beers brewed in honor of cool/interesting people) should be obvious by this point.

Chocolate Stout – Rogue Brewery, Newport OR

Delicious, but not surprising given that everything Rogue does is. Side note: the Rogue brewpub in San Francisco is a great place for trivia night (consider getting all-you-can-eat sushi across the corner at Sushi Hunter, but be aware that combining all you can eat sushi and Rogue beers is an ambitious undertaking)

  1. I had a sweet vacation in Boulder and Beaver Creek hanging out and snowboarding. []
  2. BTW, I hate those bud light commercials about drinkability. Stupid bud light is the worst beer ever. Well, maybe second worst behind Michelob Ultra. And Milwaukee’s Best. Ugh. []
  3. Along with Racer 5 IPA or an assortment of other west coast microbrews []